Financial Trade

A core contradiction has emerged in Japan’s economy: inflation-adjusted real wages plummeted 2.9% year-on-year in May (following a -2.0% decline in April), marking the sharpest drop in 20 months and extending a five-month streak of contraction. This was driven by persistent inflation—running at 4% when excluding fresh food but including rent costs—outpacing nominal wage growth, which slowed drastically to 1.0% (to ¥300,000) from 2.0% in April, hitting a 14-month low.

New Zealand’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25% on July 10, pausing its streak of six consecutive rate cuts since August 2024. Market expectations for a cut this week stand at just 15%, though most forecasts anticipate 25–50 basis points of easing by November. ANZ Bank holds a differing view, assigning a 40% probability of a cut and projecting cumulative 75 basis points of reductions by February 2025, bringing the OCR to 2.5%.

Australia is grappling with a sharp decline in international students, triggering concerns over labor market gaps. As of April 2025, the total number of international students dropped to 794,000, a decrease of 300,000 from the end of 2024. New enrollments plummeted 13% year-on-year to 219,000, while visa applications fell by over 30%. This is largely attributed to successive policy tightenings: visa fees were hiked twice in a year (from A$710 to A$1,600, then to A$2,000); English proficiency and financial proof requirements were raised

Australia’s stock market pulled back from record highs on July 7, with the S&P/ASX 200 slipping 0.16% to 8,589.3 and the All Ordinaries Index down 0.18% to 8,826.4. The decline followed confirmation that U.S. tariffs on multiple nations will take effect August 1—later than the previously expected July 10—with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating "take-it-or-leave-it" tariff notices had been sent to over a dozen countries, stoking trade uncertainty.

Canadians’ confidence in job security has dropped to a more than one-year low, with Nanos Research’s latest poll showing only 59.9% of respondents viewing their employment as "secure or relatively secure"—while over 30% expressed uncertainty, the highest level since 2023.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released on July 4 showed that household spending rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, far exceeding the expected 0.5% increase. This ended a three-month period of weakness, with the annual growth rate climbing to 4.2%.

A study released by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (l'Insee) on Tuesday, July 8, reveals that a quarter of French households reside in severely under-occupied homes—defined as having at least three more rooms than actually needed. This phenomenon affects 7.6 million primary residences, 93% of which are single-family houses, with three-quarters of these under-occupied homes exceeding 100 square meters in size.